Documentazione ed Aggiornamento

IAI Working Papers

The series includes policy papers published by the Istituto Affari Internazionali • The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon, by C-B. Biondi Syria's civil war entered a new phase in June 2013 when the Lebanese Shia armed group Hezbollah sent troops to help al-Assad's regime. It is yet unclear what the consequences of Hezbollah's decision in the fight against Syrian rebels could be, not only for Syria but also for the group itself and Lebanon. Hezbollah's involvement i n the Syrian conflict is primarily a primordial necessity as the current Syrian regime is one of its strongest allies in the region. Th us the potential loss of the Syrian regime would create serious difficulties for Hezbollah, although it would not necessarily imply its destruction. • Strategy and Its Role in the Future of European Defence Integration, by M.Muniz EU member states have proven incapable of clarity in their strategic planning, with the result that their key strategic documents are almost inevitably vague and ambiguous. This is extremely unfortunate because without a clear catalogue of interests and an understanding of their location around the world it is impossible to identify the appropriate force structure, let alone conduct a coherent and effective foreign and defence policy. This lack of rigor in strategic planning is hurting European defence integration, as member states are unable to have transparent and constructive debates about the interests they share. It would be wise to incorporate into the strategic planning process a model that allows for the capturing and quantifying of states' interests. Such a process might lead to the realization that EU member states share more strategic interests than is at first apparent. • Implications of Turkish-Azerbaijani Relations for Regional Security and Development, by B.Gültekin Punsmann Turkey has the potential to support transformation and reform in the South Caucasus through soft power. But the troubled state of Turkey's relations with Armenia seriously curtails its outreach in the region. Azerbaijan is a stakeholder in Turkish-Armenian relations and Turkey, because of its inability to proceed further with its bilateral agenda with Armenia, has become a stakeholder in the settlement of the Azeri-Armenian co nflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The importance of the notion of Turkishness in national politics is a significant factor in assessing the strength of Turkey's pro-Azeri feelings, which in turn impact on the Kurdish issue. Thus, Azeri-Turkish dynamics are affecting processes of progressive redefinition of national identity in the region.

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